Agree to Disagree
Debate in a non-hostile environment
Global Warming by
Country and Region
Global Warming by Country and Region
I have some good news, and some bad news.
Which would you like to hear first?
When it comes to global warming, some countries and regions are luckier than others. If you live in one of the following countries or regions:
- Southeast Asia
- United States of America
- New Zealand
- Central America
- South Asia..–..( includes India )
Then you can relax. But don’t fall asleep. Because you are not completely off the hook.
If you live in one of the following countries or regions:
- East Asia..–..( includes China )
- South America
- Central Asia
- Middle East
Then you should pay attention. But don’t panic. Because temperature anomalies don’t tell the full story.
To see which countries are included in which regions, click this link:
The first group of 7 countries have experienced between 1.0 and 1.6 degrees Celsius of global warming since 1880.
The second group of 7 countries have experienced between 1.9 and 2.7 degrees Celsius of global warming since 1880.
The competition to see which country had the most global warming since 1880, was a close one. Canada led the field by a BIG margin, for over 135 years. But Canada’s performance faded in the last 15 years, and Russia won by a nose.
Russia ended up with 2.7 degrees Celsius of global warming since 1880. And Canada ended up in second place, with 2.6 degrees Celsius of global warming since 1880.
If it is any consolation, Russia and Canada are 2 of the coldest countries in the world. So don’t make the mistake of thinking that they are now hot, or even warm. We can take comfort from the words of Don McLean (the American singer-songwriter, best known for his 1971 hit song “American Pie”).
Don McLean’s song “Prime Time”, includes the following piece of wisdom:
“Canada is nice, if you’re fond of ice”
The same piece of wisdom applies to Russia. And I am guessing that Russia only missed out on being mentioned in the song, because it had 1 less syllable.
People may be feeling confused by my news. Should they feel sorry for Russia and Canada, because they have had the most global warming since 1880. Or should they feel sorry for Russia and Canada, because they are both very cold countries.
Or perhaps they should feel happy for Russia and Canada, because they are not as cold as they used to be.
Don McLean was silent on this issue. However, we can consult with another American musician, Bobby McFerrin, whose lyrics include the following piece of wisdom:
Don’t worry, be happy
In every life we have some trouble
But when you worry you make it double
Don’t worry, be happy
That is enough musical wisdom for now. We have important things to discuss, about global warming.
I would like to start this section by talking about 2 of my favourite Alarmists. Katharine Hayhoe and Gavin Schmidt. Because of my interest in global warming, and because I like to know what Alarmists are up to, I used to follow these 2 people on Twitter. One day I saw some tweets from the 2 of them, discussing (in Alarmist tones) how Canada was warming at 2x the warming rate of the rest of the world.
For those who don’t know me, I am a person who has put a lot of effort into investigating global warming. I regularly analyse the temperature data, and publish what I find on my website (agree-to-disagree.com). This year I have concentrated on actual real temperatures, rather than temperature anomalies. So when I saw the tweets about Canada, I decided to spread the happy news, that Canada, despite warming at 2x the warming rate of the rest of the world, was still one of the coldest countries in the world. I replied to Katherine’s tweet, and said that Canada’s average temperature was about +4.1 degrees Celsius. The reaction was amazing.
Katherine tweeted that I should educate myself (with a link to one of her YouTube videos). Then both Katherine and Gavin blocked me, and Gavin deleted his tweet.
That was certainly not the reaction that I was expecting. It appears that blocking people is a very important part of doing science communication. I know that many other people have been blocked for daring to question Alarmist propaganda. But when it happens, it feels unfair.
I am not one to hold a grudge (for more than 10 years). Rather than get mad, I would rather get even. So I decided to “educate” Katherine and Gavin about Canada, in this article.
Let me start by saying, that I think Canada is a great country. I have actually been there, many years ago. And it seemed like a nice friendly place. One of the few countries where I think that I would enjoy living.
When I recently analysed the GISTEMP gridded temperature data, I divided the world up into the 14 areas that I listed earlier. Canada’s temperature anomaly history, stuck out like a sore thumb. As I said before, Canada led the warming field by a BIG margin, for over 135 years. But Canada’s performance faded in the last 15 years, and Russia won by a nose. Have a look at the following graph to see what I mean. The line for Canada is green, and the line for Russia is lime coloured. Canada’s line is much higher than all of the other countries/regions, for most of the graph.
Here is an interesting observation. Canada was warming strongly, from 1880 to about 1897, and from 1920 to 1937, and from about 1973 to about 2004. They must really enjoy global warming in Canada, because they have certainly done a lot of it.
The funny thing is, that the CO2 level from 1880 to 1897 was between about 291 ppm and 295 ppm. And the CO2 level from 1920 to 1937 was between about 303 ppm and 310 ppm. So why was Canada warming so fast? The CO2 levels were more than 100 ppm lower than now. Almost at pre-industrial levels. An important point to consider, the other countries/regions were not warming like that. Why was Canada different?
These observations raise many interesting questions. Including:
- Could Canadians be hoarding CO2, to try and warm up their country?
- Could Canada’s warming be caused by something other than CO2 ?
Perhaps I should take Katherine Hayhoe’s advice, and educate myself.
From my previous research on actual real temperatures, I felt uniquely qualified to warn Canadians about the hard road ahead:
- Instead of harsh winter temperatures of about −17.6 degrees Celsius, Canada was going to have endure tropical winter temperatures of about −15.0 degrees Celsius.
- Instead of cool summer temperatures of about +20.9 degrees Celsius, Canada was going to have to endure inhuman temperatures of about +23.5 degrees Celsius. (which many other countries foolishly regard as a nice day)
- Instead of pleasant average temperatures of about +1.5 degrees Celsius, Canada was going to endure sweltering average temperatures of about +4.1 degrees Celsius.
In case Canadians did not take my warnings seriously, I saved the most severe warning until last:
- If Canada warmed by only another 8.0 degrees Celsius more, then they would end up with a climate like America has now.
A warning. If you didn’t like what I said about Canada, then you should stop reading this article now. Because you won’t enjoy what I am about to say about Antarctica.
RealClimate.org recently published an article by Eric Steig, called “The Antarctic ice sheet is melting and, yeah, it’s probably our fault.”
But my analysis of the Antarctic GISTEMP gridded temperature data, showed an interesting fact. Antarctica is colder now, than it was in 1880. By about 0.8 degrees Celsius.
Now I know that you won’t believe this. But most climate scientists, when they created graphs of Antarctica’s temperature history, forgot to make the graphs go back to 1880 (when graphs of other countries/regions usually go back to 1880).
For some examples, click any of these links:
It is a simple mistake, that anybody could make. They leave out the temperature history from just after 1880, when the temperatures were higher than present times. This means that their graphs shows a strong warming trend up to present times.
I am probably going to get blocked for saying this, but Antarctica did some serious cooling from 1880 to about 1930. More cooling, than the amount of warming that it has done, since 1930. See the following graph (NH = Northern Hemisphere and SH = Southern Hemisphere).
So you don’t have to feel sorry for the penguins that live in Antarctica. They were fine in 1880, and they are still ok now.
To finish this article, I am going to make one last observation. I don’t know the answer to this question. But it will give you something to think about.
Why was Antarctica cooling very strongly from 1880 to 1940, while at the same time, Canada and the Arctic were both warming very strongly?
Please send your answers on a self addressed envelope, to Katherine Hayhoe and Gavin Schmidt.
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