Agree to Disagree
Debate in a non-hostile environment
in Australian Cities
Global Warming in Australian Cities
I recently wrote an article called “Global Warming by Country and Region”.
In that article, I looked at the amount of global warming since 1880, in 14 countries and regions. I said that Australia has had the least global warming of any country or region since 1880, apart from Southeast Asia.
I decided to look at global warming in Australia in more detail, and see if “The Lucky Country” also had “Lucky Cities”. I picked 10 of Australia’s cities, based on size and location. The following table lists the 10 cities, along with the amount of warming since 1880. The table is sorted by the amount of warming, going from the lowest to the highest. For comparison, I have also listed the amount of warming for the entire Earth (land and ocean), and for the land and ocean in each hemisphere.
I have highlighted Perth, the Australian city with the highest warming since 1880, in yellow. Note that Perth has warmed by nearly twice the amount that Darwin has warmed.
You might think that Perth has been been warming faster than the other cities. The surprising news, is that it has not been warming faster. In fact, if you look at the following graph, you will see that if anything, Perth has been warming slower than the other cities. But it has been warming for about 50 years longer than the other cities.
Perth has been warming since about 1890 or 1900. But the other cities have only been warming since about 1950.
Perth was warming particularly fast between 1900 and 1915 (at over 2.0 degrees Celsius per century), when the CO2 level was at about 300 ppm. And all of the other cities were not warming at all.
Compare that warming rate to the average for the entire Earth from 1970 to 2019, which was about 1.8 degrees Celsius per century.
Warning – I should mention that this analysis was done using the GISTEMP gridded temperature series (Land-Ocean Temperature Index, ERSSTv5, 1200km smoothing). I know that some people don’t trust GISTEMP. However, I don’t believe that GISTEMP would deliberately adjust Perth’s temperature history to show early warming. It is possible that there are errors in the data.
I have watched with interest, as climate emergencies are declared all over the world. In Australia, if any city had a good case for declaring a climate emergency, then surely it would have to be Perth, the city with the most warming since 1880.
Perth has warmed by more than the amount that the average Southern Hemisphere land has warmed. Whereas all of the other Australian cities have warmed by less than the amount that the average Southern Hemisphere land has warmed.
Perth is a real scorcher.
But wait. We have been looking at temperature anomalies, not real absolute temperatures. Are you brave enough to look at the real absolute temperatures that Perth has been enduring (timid people should stop reading this article now – you have been warned).
Luckily I have access to real absolute temperature data for over 24,000 locations on the Earth. So I looked up the real absolute temperatures for the Australian cities that I have analysed.
The following table lists for each city:
- the amount of warming since 1880
- the average temperature in 1880
- the average temperature in 2019
The table is sorted by the average temperature in 2019, from lowest to highest. You will see that Perth is not the warmest of the 10 cities. In fact, it is the 5th warmest.
I have highlighted Perth in yellow, and Brisbane in orange. If you look at these 2 cities, you will notice something interesting.
Perth’s average temperature in 2019, with 1.65 degrees Celsius of warming since 1880, is 1.5 degrees Celsius LESS than Brisbane’s average temperature was in 1880.
As far as I know, they didn’t declare a climate emergency in Brisbane in 1880. Perth’s temperature NOW, is 1.5 degrees Celsius LESS than Brisbane’s average temperature in 1880.
Think about that. And remember, that there was no air conditioning in 1880.
The lesson to be learned is, you can’t judge how bad global warming is, just by looking at temperature anomalies. For some strange reason, climate scientists refuse to look at real absolute temperatures.
Is it because global warming is a lot less scary, when you look at real absolute temperatures?
Temperature anomalies have no context, to judge how bad things are. Temperature anomalies don’t even tell you whether it is hot or cold (hint: climate scientists and Alarmists want you to think that it is always hot).
Why is climate science based on numbers which don’t tell the whole story?
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